Al-Shabab: The Devolution from 1991 to 2023

This article provides a comprehensive overview of the history and evolution of Al-Shabab, a militant Islamist group operating in Somalia. Under the current leadership of the violent Ahmad Umar (Abu Ubaidah), Al-Shabab has seen a growth in its activities in recent years. By examining the group’s origins, key milestones, and strategic shifts, this article aims to shed light on the complex dynamics that have shaped Al-Shabab’s trajectory and influence in Somalia.

Al-Shabab, meaning “The Youth” in Arabic, is an extremist Islamist group that emerged in Somalia in the early 2000s. The origins of Al-Shabab can be traced back to the collapse of the Somali state in 1991, which created a power vacuum and allowed various armed groups to flourish. The forerunner of al-Shabaab, and the incubator for many of its leaders, was al-Ittihad al-Islami (AIAI, or “Unity of Islam”), a militant Salafi group that peaked in the 1990s, after the fall of Said Barre’s 1969–1991 regime and the outbreak of civil war. AIAI’s core was a band of Middle East–educated Somali extremists likely led by Sheikh Ali Warsame and was partly funded and armed by al-Qaeda’s chief, Osama bin Laden. The group then split and the most hardcore members united under the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), a coalition of Sharia courts that aimed to establish Islamic law in Somalia. Out of this the hard liners established Al-Shabab, taking advantage of the political discontent of the youth to form a political and military movement.

In its early stages, Al-Shabab primarily focused on providing security and enforcing strict interpretations of Islamic law in areas under its control. It gained popularity among some segments of the population due to its ability to restore order and deliver swift justice in a country plagued by lawlessness and violence. However, as Al-Shabab grew in strength and influence, it started to adopt more radical ideologies and engage in acts of terrorism. Its first military commander was Aden Hashi Farah Aero, who had been trained by Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan prior to 2001.

By 2006, Al-Shabab had become the dominant force within the ICU and launched an insurgency against the weak Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and its international backers. The group exploited the grievances of marginalized communities, particularly in rural areas, and capitalized on widespread discontent with corruption, poverty, and lack of basic services. Al-Shabab’s message resonated with many disillusioned Somalis who saw it as a viable alternative to the corrupt and ineffective government.

Over the years, Al-Shabab has increased its military actions to further its objectives. These include suicide bombings, assassinations, ambushes, and attacks on military bases, government institutions, and public spaces. The group has also targeted international actors, including African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces and Western interests.

Al-Shabab maintained dominance in much of Somalia until 2011. After taking heavy losses from the Ramadan offensive and the subsequent Battle of Mogadishu, they announced a strategic withdrawal from Mogadishu in August 2011. In recent years it has been seen that Al-Shabab have been militarily resurgent, likely down to government weakness and lack of international military support. In October 2017, more than 500 people were killed by a suicide truck bombing in Mogadishu. In December 2019, another suicide truck bombing marked the beginning of a series of al-Shabaab attacks on the capital city, which continued into 2022. Al-Shabaab also targeted American military personnel in an attack on a Kenyan base in January 2020, and in July 2022 launched an unusually bold, though short-lived, incursion in to Ethiopian territory. By 2020, the group’s strategy of semi-territorialism allowed it operate freely in much of rural Somalia, with its primary base in the Jubba river Valley, although air strikes against its leaders continued; and it has recently won military successes against the government. It had also expanded its operations in Puntland, prompting a military offensive by Puntland forces in 2021. As of July 2022, al-Shabaab is generally considered to be “resurgent”, a situation partly enabled by a reduction in the number of American air strikes, and possibly motivated by competition with Islamic State (ISIS) in Somalia, which has been conducting its own expansionary campaign.

Aftermath of the Westgate Mall Attacks

Al-Shabab’s recruitment strategies have been multifaceted. It has exploited socio-economic vulnerabilities, such as high unemployment rates and limited educational opportunities, to attract disaffected youth. The group has also employed sophisticated propaganda techniques, utilizing social media platforms and online forums to disseminate its extremist ideology and recruit followers. Additionally, Al-Shabab has established a network of religious schools, known as madrassas, where it indoctrinates young students with its radical beliefs.

The international community, regional actors, and the Somali government have made concerted efforts to counter Al-Shabab. These include military operations, intelligence sharing, capacity-building initiatives, and attempts at security sector reform. However, Al-Shabab has proven resilient and adaptive, often regrouping and launching attacks in response to counter-terrorism efforts. In recent years, Al-Shabab has faced some territorial losses due to the combined efforts of AMISOM, Somali security forces, and international partners. However, it still maintains a significant presence in rural areas, particularly in southern and central Somalia. The group continues to pose a significant threat to the stability and security of the region.

One of the factors that contribute to Al-Shabab’s resilience is its ability to exploit the underlying socio-economic grievances of the Somali population. Somalia has long been plagued by poverty, unemployment, and limited access to basic services such as education and healthcare. These conditions create fertile ground for extremist ideologies to take root and for groups like Al-Shabab to recruit disaffected individuals. High unemployment rates, particularly among the youth, provide an ample pool of potential recruits for Al-Shabab. The lack of economic opportunities and hope for a better future make young Somalis vulnerable to the group’s promises of purpose, belonging, and financial support. Al-Shabab offers recruits a sense of identity and purpose, as well as material incentives such as salaries and access to resources. Limited educational opportunities also play a role in Al-Shabab’s recruitment strategies. The group targets young people who have had limited access to formal education and are therefore more susceptible to indoctrination. Al-Shabab’s religious schools, or madrassas, provide an alternative education system where radical ideologies are propagated and young minds are shaped according to the group’s extremist beliefs.

Al-Shabab has also been successful in utilizing social media platforms and online forums to disseminate its propaganda and recruit followers. The group has shown a sophisticated understanding of digital communication tools and has used them effectively to spread its extremist ideology, showcase its activities, and attract new recruits. Most of their content is published online via Al-Qaeda’s official media wing As-Sahab Media, including regular news reports and ideological speeches. Online recruitment allows Al-Shabab to reach a wider audience, including individuals outside Somalia who may be sympathetic to its cause.

The international community, regional actors, and the Somali government have recognized the need for a comprehensive approach to counter Al-Shabab. Military operations have been a key component of these efforts, with AMISOM forces and Somali security forces conducting joint operations to target Al-Shabab strongholds and disrupt its activities. The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) was a regional peacekeeping force operated by the African Union with the approval of the United Nations Security Council, operating from 2007 it was instrumental in pushing Shabab out of Mogadishu and maintain some level of security in the country. In 2022 ANISOM was replaced by the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) an active African Union transition and drawdown mission from peacekeeping operations in Somalia. ATMIS’s mandate will end in 2024, with full transition of security operations to the Somali National Armed Forces. Although the Somali Army has conducted an offensive in the past year, Al-Shabab are far from being defeated and it seems that the removal of external security forces is unlikely to improve stability and will likely embolden Al-Shabab fighters.

The international community must continue to support Somalia in its efforts to counter Al-Shabab. This includes providing financial assistance, technical expertise, and capacity-building initiatives. Regional cooperation is also crucial, with neighboring countries working together to share intelligence, coordinate operations, and prevent the cross-border movement of militants. Even with the likely withdrawal of AFU troops, regional leaders are already holding discussion on how to support the government of Somalia, in an attempt to maintain stability post militant intervention. Indeed the group is a key security concern in the region – in June 2023 they made an incursion in to Kenya killing 5 civilians. They show no sign of reducing such activity. Ultimately, countering Al-Shabab requires a comprehensive approach that addresses both the security and underlying socio-economic factors driving extremism. By addressing the root causes of instability and creating opportunities for the Somali population, it is possible to weaken the appeal of groups like Al-Shabab and pave the way for a more stable and secure Somalia.

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