Efforts to target Islamic State in Somalia have ramped up since the start of 2025, following an uptick in activity. The ongoing “Hilaac operation” in Puntland, the North-Easter state of Somalia has led to significant developments in this fight. General Mohamud Ahmed Faadhigo, the spokesperson for the operation, revealed that international intelligence sources have confirmed that Abdikadar Mumin has fled the mountains. Mumin is believed to not only lead ISIS in Somalia, but also to be the global leader of ISIS. The fact that Mumin has fled his long-term base of operations undoubtedly highlights the success that Puntland’s security forces have had in tackling IS, though this will undoubtedly be seen as a missed opportunity for some. Despite this success, the situation in Puntland remains precarious, as his Deputy leader and head of operations, Abdirahman Fahaye Isse Mohamud, is still believed to be hiding in the rugged terrain.
North-eastern State President Said Abdullahi Deni announced the third phase of the counter-ISIS campaign in February 2025, which significantly diminished operational capabilities of the ISIS faction in Puntland. Following this, in June 2025, stage four was launched aiming to ferret out and neutralize smaller groups of ISIS fighters hiding in the surrounding area.
President Deni emphasized that the fight against ISIS is not just about defeating a group, but about defending a way of life against an ideology that transcends borders and cultures. He highlighted that North-eastern state forces have engaged ISIS militants from diverse backgrounds, originating from various parts of the world.
Some pro-IS Telegram accounts have tried to put a positive spin on this, mocking security forces for failing to kill Mumin. One user in the pro-IS Telegram discussion group “chat al-sadiquon bil-Haqq” (chat of the truth-speakers) mocked security forces for failing in its “primary objective”, despite enjoying superior firepower and numbers. The IS supporter alleged that Puntland forces had received support from the US and Israel, and yet still was not able to kill Mumin. The message added that the mission had been a waste of military and intelligence efforts.
Despite these attempts to ridicule security forces, the dislodging of Mumin raises serious questions about what is next for IS’s global figurehead, as well as the long-term future of IS in Somalia who are coming under increasing counter-terrorism pressure. It also raises questions about who the group would appoint were anything to happen to Mumin. There has been a consistent stream of strikes targeting Senior ISIS figures globally, which have mostly been conducting by the US. These are believed to have depleted some of IS’ most senior leaders which will be a cause for concern within IS ranks, particularly when it comes to identifying experienced successors within IS senior echelons. While Abdirahman Fahiye Isse Mohamud would likely assume Mumin’s responsibilities in Somalia, it is unlikely that he has the stock and Qurayshi lineage to become IS’s global figurehead. This also raises questions about Mumin’s capacity to effectively lead whilst he is on the run. Questions will also undoubtedly be raised as to why he did not stand and fight as he expects those under his command to do.